Cold War Veterans Blog

Commentary: A new Cold War in Asia?
SEOUL, Sep. 11
ZHANG QUANYI

Column: Global Survey
The Cold War is not yet over in Asia, as evidenced by the tensions that persist on the still divided Korean peninsula. Yet before the old one is over, the curtain of a new Cold War appears to be descending in the region. While the leaders who attended the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Sydney this past weekend seemed to be united in their call for action on challenging issues such as global warming and economic development, in fact a cauldron of unpredictable discord was simmering just below the surface of smiles and handshakes.

The United States and Japan seem intent on creating a new military block in Asia. They have enlisted Australia, India and Singapore as their allies, and the five nations were concluding their first joint military exercises in the Bay of Bengal just as the APEC conference was winding down. In Sydney, the United States, Japan and Australia held separate security talks at which the main topic was how to engage with India.

The leading members of this alliance have described their cooperation as focused on their "common interests," and have stressed that it is not aimed against China. Yet there is little evidence to prove this argument. No one knows what scenarios will arise in the future.

The Cold War should serve as a mirror in this present situation. The confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union in the early years of the Cold War resembles in some respects the situation that is emerging today.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was based on the Brussels Treaty powers -- Britain, Belgium, France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands -- who set up a military alliance in 1948. The group needed U.S. participation to counter the strength of the Soviet Union, however, and a year later these five countries were joined by the United States, Canada, Portugal, Italy, Norway, Denmark and Iceland, who signed a treaty in Washington, D.C. to create NATO as a collective security system.

The chief purpose of the alliance was specified in Article 5, which stated that an armed attack against one or more of the members in Europe or North America would be considered an attack against them all. The group expanded several times -- there are now 26 NATO members.

The Cold War later extended to Asia. From 1951, the United States completed an alliance system linking the 1954 Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, or SEATO -- which reached from Australia to Pakistan -- to the 1955 Baghdad Pact Organization (later the Central Treaty Organization, or CENTO).

The U.S. action resulted in the establishment of another military block, the Warsaw Pact, headed by the Soviet Union. It was established in 1955 in Warsaw, Poland, to counter the potential threat from the NATO alliance and in response to the inclusion of a "remilitarized" West Germany in NATO the same year. The Warsaw Pact, or Warsaw Treaty Organization, was first an organization of Central and Eastern European communist states. The Pact lasted throughout the Cold War until the collapse of the Soviet Union.

What is the situation now in Asia? The recent military moves among the five allied nations are creating a similar effect. With some policymakers warning of an emerging "China threat," particularly within the United States, Japan and India, this military cooperation could generate unpredictable instability. The five nations represent great potential power, both economically and militarily. Their alliance is setting up a model. Other countries or regional powers from both Asia and Europe may seek to join, or be invited into the new alliance.

This will create a military dilemma. When one side takes an action, regardless of its purpose, a tit-for-tat action may follow. The actions taken by these five countries have actually caused great concern within the Chinese government and among the Chinese people. If military cooperation expands among the United States, Japan and India, China will not remain idle. It may seek an alliance with Russia, South Korea, North Korea, Vietnam and even Cuba and Venezuela.

What's more, domestic politics may complicate existing conflicts, and nationalism may very likely push the Chinese government into confrontation with the alliance. When such a scenario occurs, conflict will be unavoidable, and a new Cold War will be underway. It will then be too late to cry over spilled milk.

History has taught us a lesson. It is necessary to have an umbrella handy in preparation for a rainy day. In this time of globalization, powerful states should bear real responsibility for the global interest rather than their own national interests.